The COVID-19 outbreak of early 2020 was the proximal cause of a structural economic collapse that was already well underway. The near-term macroeconomic environment will continue to get weirder and more fragmented as the pandemic plays out, and as governments and central banks experiment their way towards new ideological models that can supplant neoliberalism.

In this strange environment, successful businesses will shift their mindset and attentional patterns to look at not just the the economy but multiple ecologies of value creation and support, to protect their existing pools of capital or find new ones.


Unreal markets

Which Way Now?, Howard Marks (March 2020)
Why the Global Recession Could Last a Long Time, Peter S. Goodman (April 2020)
Modern Monetary Theory Wikipedia entry [especially the “Criticisms” section]
Murder on the History Express, Venkat Rao (April 2020)
Knowledge of the future, Howard Marks (April 2020)
Money is losing its meaning, Jared Dillian (April 2020)
The debt reckoning has finally arrived, Robert J. Samuelson (April 2020)
The Anatomy of the $2T COVID-19 Stimulus Bill, Nick Routely (March 2020)
Millionaires to reap 80% of benefit from tax change…, Amanda Holpunch (April 2020)
The Fed’s coronavirus response could have unintended results, Dion Rabouin (April 2020)
The Fed may have fundamentally altered the nature of risk…, Ben Carlson (April 2020)
What the Negative Price of Oil is Telling Us, Neil Irwin (April 2020)
After the Disease, the Debt, The Economist (April 2020)
Argentina’s Make-or-Break Moment, The Economist (April 2020)
What Is the Stock Market Even for Anymore?, Michael Steinberger (May 2020)
The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand., Neil Irwin (June 2020)
Finviz S&P 500 visualization
The Market Partied like it was 1932, Jeff Sommer (June 2020)
“Wow. FAMGA market cap = the next 24 largest public cos.” – CB Insights (June 2020)
A Tidal Wave of Bankruptcies is Coming, Mary Williams Walsh (June 2020)
It’s 2022. What Does Life Look Like?, David Leonhardt (July 2020)
The COVID-19 pandemic is forcing a rethink in macroeconomics, The Economist (July 2020)
Return of the Clutch Class, Venkatesh Rao (September 2020)
COVID-19 recession is the most unequal in modern U.S. history, H. Long et al (September 2020)
Europe’s Economic Recovery is a Summer Memory, Peter S. Goodman (October 2020)

Local governments in crisis

SF’s top money man grapples with dire forecasts…, Heather Knight (May 2020)
New York City faces a financial abyss, Dana Rubinstein (September 2020)


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